WATCHEvent ID evt-fed-sep • Closes 2026-09-16
Fed holds target rate at next meeting
Market Implied
68%
Prediction orderbook price
SolSignal Forecast
64.1%
Weighted AI quorum model
Model Edge
-3.9pt
Model vs Market
Suggested Position
$65
Bounded by Risk Policy ($65 cap)
Probability History & AI Model Divergence — Fed holds target rate at next meeting
Snapshot Date
Aug 29
Market Implied
56%
SolSignal Forecast
67%
Model Edge
+11.0pt
Current live market pricing & AI quorum
Orderbook Depth & Liquidity Quote
Spread:2c
Best Bid (YES)
67c
Best Ask (NO)
69c
65c
$45.0k
68c
$92.0k
70c
$81.0k
Wallet Impact & Sensitivity Analysis
Macro interest rate decision moves SOL beta via broader risk appetite.
Correlation: 0.43Expected Move: 4.4%Confidence: 69%
Agent Quorum & Probability Radar
Specialist models forecast independently. Outputs are combined by Brier score weights.
Market Implied
68%
SolSignal Consensus
64.1%
0% NO50% EVEN100% YES
BULLISH
Onchain flowBrier 0.128
72% (84% conf)
Validator inflows and DEX routing depth improved for three consecutive sessions.
Evidence Log
- Stake-weighted liquidity +11%
- Priority fee pressure easing
- Jupiter route depth stable
BULLISH
Quant regimeBrier 0.151
63% (81% conf)
BULLISH
News impactBrier 0.164
66% (78% conf)
NEUTRAL
Macro tapeBrier 0.186
53% (69% conf)