PROTECTIONEvent ID evt-sol-aug • Closes 2026-09-04

SOL above $220 by Friday close

Market Implied

56%

Prediction orderbook price

SolSignal Forecast

65.8%

Weighted AI quorum model

Model Edge

+9.8pt

Model vs Market

Suggested Position

$65

Bounded by Risk Policy ($65 cap)

Probability History & AI Model Divergence — SOL above $220 by Friday close
20%40%60%80%Aug 01Aug 08Aug 15Aug 22Aug 29
Snapshot Date

Aug 29

Market Implied

56%

SolSignal Forecast

67%

Model Edge

+11.0pt

Current live market pricing & AI quorum
Orderbook Depth & Liquidity Quote
Spread:2c

Best Bid (YES)

55c

Best Ask (NO)

57c

52c
$12.5k
54c
$28.4k
56c
$41.2k
58c
$38.9k
60c
$19.5k
Wallet Impact & Sensitivity Analysis

High SOL concentration makes this market your largest directional exposure.

Correlation: 0.74Expected Move: 8.6%Confidence: 81%
Agent Quorum & Probability Radar

Specialist models forecast independently. Outputs are combined by Brier score weights.

Market Implied

56%

SolSignal Consensus

65.8%

0% NO50% EVEN100% YES
BULLISH
Onchain flowBrier 0.128
72% (84% conf)

Validator inflows and DEX routing depth improved for three consecutive sessions.

Evidence Log

  • Stake-weighted liquidity +11%
  • Priority fee pressure easing
  • Jupiter route depth stable
BULLISH
Quant regimeBrier 0.151
63% (81% conf)
BULLISH
News impactBrier 0.164
66% (78% conf)
NEUTRAL
Macro tapeBrier 0.186
53% (69% conf)