WATCHEvent ID evt-sol-uptime • Closes 2026-10-01
No Solana major outage before October
Market Implied
88%
Prediction orderbook price
SolSignal Forecast
91.2%
Weighted AI quorum model
Model Edge
+3.2pt
Model vs Market
Suggested Position
$65
Bounded by Risk Policy ($65 cap)
Probability History & AI Model Divergence — No Solana major outage before October
Snapshot Date
Aug 29
Market Implied
56%
SolSignal Forecast
67%
Model Edge
+11.0pt
Current live market pricing & AI quorum
Orderbook Depth & Liquidity Quote
Spread:2c
Best Bid (YES)
87c
Best Ask (NO)
89c
86c
$31.0k
88c
$65.0k
90c
$42.0k
Agent Quorum & Probability Radar
Specialist models forecast independently. Outputs are combined by Brier score weights.
Market Implied
88%
SolSignal Consensus
91.2%
0% NO50% EVEN100% YES
BULLISH
Onchain flowBrier 0.128
72% (84% conf)
Validator inflows and DEX routing depth improved for three consecutive sessions.
Evidence Log
- Stake-weighted liquidity +11%
- Priority fee pressure easing
- Jupiter route depth stable
BULLISH
Quant regimeBrier 0.151
63% (81% conf)
BULLISH
News impactBrier 0.164
66% (78% conf)
NEUTRAL
Macro tapeBrier 0.186
53% (69% conf)